Monday, June 10, 2024 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Craig Forde
Free Daily MLB Lock Pick, Monday, June 10th: NY Yankees vs Kansas City Royals 8:10pm ET
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The Yankees head west to link up with the Royals for a four-game series starting on Monday night. New York (45-21, 1st in AL East) are going to have LHP Carlos Rodon (8-2, 3.08 ERA) as their starting pitcher in the series opener while Kansas City (39-26, 2nd in AL Central) will have RHP Seth Lugo (9-1, 2.13 ERA) leading things off on the hill. The first pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 EST.
(This was published before the conclusion of Sunday’s games.)
New York drops first series in a while
The Yankees had gone 9-0-1 in ten series before dropping their series at home against the Dodgers over the weekend. The New York offense entered Sunday leading the AL with 325 runs scored in 66 innings and their 4.92 runs per game average ranked seventh overall. They slashed .254/.333/.435 and had 199 extra-base hits and 34 stolen bases. Yankees’ batters struck out 518 times and drew a league-best 256 walks. With a single in Saturday’s loss, Anthony Volpe ran his hit streak to eight games and his on-base streak to 34 games. The New York shortstop entered Sunday hitting .285 with 22 extra-base hits, 25 RBI, and 47 runs scored.
The Yankees pitching staff topped the American League with a 2.88 team ERA through 66 games. Their starters have gone 31-13 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and an opponents’ batting average of .209. Overall, the staff recorded 569 strikeouts and issued 213 free passes. Rodon earned a sixth straight win in his last start after striking out nine and allowing just two runs and three hits over six innings. In his last six outings, the southpaw allowed only 10 runs combined and struck out 35 batters in 36.1 innings of work. His 1.08 WHIP this season is 12th best in the American League. Rodon has a 3-6 lifetime record against the Royals, with a 5.27 ERA in 11 starts.
Kansas City proving to be very real
The Royals won a series for the first time in their last five tries by snatching the first two games of their weekend series versus Seattle. Going into Sunday they were just one run behind the Yankees with 324 in 65 games, and their 4.98 runs per game average was fifth best overall. The Kansas City offense slashed .254/.316/.414, with 200 extra-base hits and 63 stolen bases. They had also struck out 456 times and drawn 186 walks. Vinnie Pasquantino had a double and drove in two runs on Saturday. Over his last nine games, before Sunday, the Royals’ first baseman hit .353 with five doubles and 10 RBI.
In the pitching department, Kansas City ranks sixth in the American League with a 3.66 team ERA through 65 games. The starting rotation was 26-16 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The staff as a whole had struck out 511 batters while allowing 200 walks. Lugo did not earn a decision in his last outing, only the third time this season that has happened. The Royals’ starter allowed five runs, six hits, and a walk in six innings at Cleveland, his third straight road start. In his last five outings, four of them away from home, the righty went 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 35 Ks in 32.2 innings. Lugo is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Yanks.
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Rating:
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. The Yankees went 4-2 against the Royals last season but Kansas City won two of three at home when they met last in last September. The Royals will also enter this series as the hotter of the two teams after New York was knocked down a peg by the Dodgers over the weekend. The good news for New York is that their weekend series was at home but now they hit the road, where they have a 24-11 record, the best in the game. This is an excellent matchup as two of the top three winningest pitchers in the American League this season go toe-to-toe. It will be very interesting to see how Lugo responds coming off of his worst start so far this season. He has been strong at home for the most part but has yielded five home runs in his last three starts at Kauffman. Rodon was a monster in his last outing and his last three road starts he is 3-0, allowing a combined four runs, 11 hits and four walks over 18 innings. New York is going to come into this series with a little fire under them.
Take the Yankees.
Prediction: New York -130
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Rating:
This should be an interesting test of wills as both sides boast two of the better offenses and pitching staffs going right now. In six meetings last season the under went 3-2-1 while this season there have been a combined 68 games between the teams that have hit the under. With Juan Soto out of their lineup, the Yankee offense managed to score just four total runs in their first two games against the Dodgers. Soto’s status is still up in the air heading into Sunday night and the week ahead, which slows New York’s production a bit. The Royals offense did do some damage against a weakened Seattle staff. Prior to that, they scored four runs or less in three of four games. I think this one becomes the feeling out party of the series, leading to a strong pitcher’s duel.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under 8.5
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Written By Craig Forde , "Craig Forde"
A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.
